tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-169364002024-03-13T02:23:57.776+00:001000 days to a MillionStarting on October 1st 2005 I aim to trade my way to £1 Million Pounds in 1000 days. Read the very first post to see how I am doing it - Have fun watching :)Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-4184850780042826972013-04-05T17:20:00.004+00:002013-05-28T14:24:43.666+00:00<h2>
Finally the secret is revealed....</h2>
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<a href="http://bit.ly/10EuKVg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><img border="0" src="http://bit.ly/12LBK47" /></a></div>
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<b>Over half a million traders have read this blog since 2005</b>. It tells a story of ordinary people doing extraordinary things on the currency markets. </h2>
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The story on this blog has now been published as a book on Kindle and soon to be paperback<br />
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During 2005 I and a group of very talented traders devised and traded a
100% mechanical trading system with the aim of producing 1 million
pounds from a starting bank of £10000. Inside 13 months it produced over
1000% in returns. <br />
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That story has now been published as a book on Kindle and is soon to be released as a paperback<br /><br />
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The
book has everything in it. The full system, the full trading log, The
money management and the highs and lows that came with terrific return. <br />
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<b>If you are a systems trader in Forex or any other technically studied market then this book is a 'must buy' for you</b><br />
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Read the inside story about this amazing journey today <a href="http://bit.ly/10EuKVg" target="_blank">just click here to get your hands on it</a><br />
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<b>The Holy Grail Trading System</b><br />
<b>By James Windsor</b><br />
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contact me on twitter if you like <a href="http://twitter.com/soultraderforex" target="_blank">@soultraderforex</a>, join me on <a href="http://facebook.com/soultraderforex" target="_blank">facebook</a> or <a href="mailto:trixietrader@gmail.com" target="_blank">email me </a><br />
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<a href="http://clicktotweet.com/1St6V" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Click to Tweet About This </a>Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-51762193225287526142007-07-17T15:54:00.000+00:002007-08-11T10:56:39.795+00:00What went wrong?<span style="font-weight: bold;">The Million Pound Experiment - The Grail system.<br /><br /><br /></span><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGIVFCtzDuPjoa_X9V2hDC7dwjJRMrgRDmEUlx4TFPYu6bN9Mn9lOk_gotGbDOUwuPZqvOmET-nWaKp99q3FeJA7w4UiNPfBAzXy6S-cFDAleFWqQw886mmGLTZjFufYy5ef_mVA/s1600-h/cgon264l.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGIVFCtzDuPjoa_X9V2hDC7dwjJRMrgRDmEUlx4TFPYu6bN9Mn9lOk_gotGbDOUwuPZqvOmET-nWaKp99q3FeJA7w4UiNPfBAzXy6S-cFDAleFWqQw886mmGLTZjFufYy5ef_mVA/s320/cgon264l.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5097394218730880690" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br />I must say it's nice for you to pop along here now and again to see if anything is happening. I have news for you and a lesson to be learned, but you might not like it. I certainly didn't.<br /><br />This message is aimed at those people who spend hours on top of hours back testing their system whether by hand or by a computer model. so in other words any trader ever trying to make a trading system.<br /><br />The lesson is that most likely your system has a missing element - read this post thoroughly and you'll find out what it is.<br /><br />The system we knew as Grail is no longer in use. It is no longer productive. That does not mean that it will never work again, but that it no longer gives the right return for the amount of risk taken.<br /><br />In December last year (2006) grail had a drawdown of around 50%. Bear in mind that at it's height the system had made 1000% in a year and had taken 10k into 100k - a significant achievement I'm sure you will all agree.<br /><br />The December drawdown was a crushing blow. I was in New York at the time having a holiday and it totally spoilt that!. Of course the day that we as a team decided to reduce the stakes was the day the system decided to turn around. we changed from £118 per pip to £50.<br /><br />thereafter followed a 17 day winning streak. to the point that had we remained on our original staking plan, new account highs would have been made on day 14. amazing eh.<br /><br />so think about this, OK, you reduced stake and the system did exactly what you thought it would do. it returned to form. We did not do what most would and go back to large stakes, we took the hit and moved on from our current position.<br /><br />December though should have rang warning bells. The fact that the drawdown was so severe and sudden - within 18 trading days from a new high at the end of November we were almost on our knees. Clearly the system was prodding us in the ribs saying "oi, take notice twat" we didn't.<br /><br />we continued to trade the system - January did amazing numbers but then that was it.<br /><br />Feb lost, March lost, April lost and this time it was a drawdown of almost 60% from the November highs when we finally gave up the ghost and ceased trading Grail. From over 100k i had around 38k left. - gone in less than six weeks.<br /><br />When you think about it, the system was a success. It made 38k from 10k and in addition to this we traded it on another account and took over 40k in 'wages' from 10k of that initial winnings. so not bad.<br /><br />we are still tracking the system and it's lost and lost and lost - if we would have continued it would without a doubt have blown the account totally. The bottom of the drawdown was 1082 pips, met a couple of weeks ago.<br /><br />So what went wrong and what can we learn from this to move on. More importantly how can it help you.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Testing</span><br /><br />When we first devised the system and tested it we hand tested almost three years of data. - that was around 600 trades. Would you consider that adequate? remember machine and HAND tested?<br /><br />It sounds like plenty of testing doesn't it and believe me it was hard work. we changed this, changed that, aware all of the time that we must not curve fit. Checking each trade manually on a one minute chart.<br /><br />Our final test prior to live ran from May 1st 2003 to September 1st 2005 (remember we started trading it in October 2005)<br /><br />Below is a snapshot of the equity curve of the test - good eh?<br /><br /><br />Well, we thought it was!<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy-b4HEuYLUy6CNCec9NKQrhe3FHsXCHejy7jSwx4ERDBD5m3o1FsMcEyextKz6i5T0C9k-metmAutJVLi8N-iyuyB6FQgZtyxQim189aUbI6-88ONqRnfHh23sZLDOT2Ky604eA/s1600-h/ScreenHunter_8.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 371px; height: 165px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy-b4HEuYLUy6CNCec9NKQrhe3FHsXCHejy7jSwx4ERDBD5m3o1FsMcEyextKz6i5T0C9k-metmAutJVLi8N-iyuyB6FQgZtyxQim189aUbI6-88ONqRnfHh23sZLDOT2Ky604eA/s320/ScreenHunter_8.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5097355426586263122" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br />In fact we thought it good enough through our months of testing and refining that we began trading it in October 2005.<br /><br />The tales of our experience from here are in this very blog if you go back far enough - it's a fascinating read and you will enjoy it.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Live Trading</span><br /><br />to cut a long story short, one year in and all is well. The system performed not just close but EXACTLY how we expected it to, hitting 1000% within just 4 weeks of the anticipated date of October 31 2006.<br /><br />Imagine the elation knowing that all you have to do is repeat what you've already done for a year, for the next year and you would be sat on a cool million. At this point we were all 100% committed to this in the 100% belief that this system works. We even had investment funds now trading the system. Millions were being traded with it.<br /><br />The test data now had an extra year of trades but this time REAL trades and not test trades. The test was now over 800 trades with 20% of them done in the real market.<br /><br />have a look at this chart - the test matched reality exactly - this was may 03 to November 06<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7a5KX8xPcuO0xZx5Rdk8J0zbMWlNwVY7FZcW-p_BtreaiIabDdAV335OQlMbpE_yKqYAptfjEDKGh1UMpbCfGhv77YidzMzspihyphenhyphen8jHrZgT7Bu5QdNcSU5hcqE_0dwSStMyNVNQ/s1600-h/ScreenHunter_9.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 360px; height: 161px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7a5KX8xPcuO0xZx5Rdk8J0zbMWlNwVY7FZcW-p_BtreaiIabDdAV335OQlMbpE_yKqYAptfjEDKGh1UMpbCfGhv77YidzMzspihyphenhyphen8jHrZgT7Bu5QdNcSU5hcqE_0dwSStMyNVNQ/s320/ScreenHunter_9.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5097360821065186914" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Fall</span><br /><br />We know the story from here, just go back a few posts and you'll see what happened. The system failed. But why did it fail and what did we do wrong and not include?<br /><br />Ceasing to trade the system was one of the hardest decisions I have ever made as a trader. It didn't mean just my dreams evaporating, but those of my team, My wife and the capital of my investors. Not an easy decision and one that still makes me shudder to this day.<br /><br />As a team and as human beings we went through what i can only explain was a grieving process. we just didn't know what to do or where to turn. we had got so used to mechanical trading that our discretionary skills has dried up and withered so we had no backup plan.<br /><br />You may laugh at this but this grieving process is only just coming to an end and was one of the most painful times in my life. Ive always been successful in whatever I've done and when I've set a goal I've reached it. This time I did not.<br /><br />The reason i have the strength to continue this blog is because I am now back on the road and once again trading very well but i learned so much from the experience, in fact some will laugh, but I'm a changed person because of it.<br /><br />before we move on, allow me to share with you the equity curve that the test returns when ran today. - the high peak you can see is November 2006 - the second lower peak is January ran with lower staking and you can see what happens from there - direct evidence i suppose that trends exist in every part of trading including equity curves!<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhY2nTD_BCRiYthtgJrX02haUKkBgt_XT4jxGtbGV-VGNfTaAc1YMkVgekKPGgHonLY23i20pfllNgWnVf8KYHqFxXga7Zkppx19VJiAiAZYKQG1Lj63T3d90R8n3FIfyoYSZAmfA/s1600-h/ScreenHunter_4.gif"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 428px; height: 224px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhY2nTD_BCRiYthtgJrX02haUKkBgt_XT4jxGtbGV-VGNfTaAc1YMkVgekKPGgHonLY23i20pfllNgWnVf8KYHqFxXga7Zkppx19VJiAiAZYKQG1Lj63T3d90R8n3FIfyoYSZAmfA/s320/ScreenHunter_4.gif" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5097362959958900338" border="0" /></a><br /><br />The Analysis<br /><br />So, lets look at what went wrong.<br /><br />Those of you who backtest systems wont like this. Most think that a few months or just a year is long enough to test. It isn't.<br /><br />Our test, even almost 4 years of it with 800 trades of which 20% were real - was not enough.<br /><br />Why? because our test did not include all market conditions.<br /><br />When the grief set in we started to dissect the system and find out what went wrong, why the system failed and what we could have done to mitigate.<br /><br />After a lot of talk and soul searching we looked at the date we used to test - it was fine but when we looked at a monthly chart, it was strikingly obvious.<br /><br />Here is the chart.<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieUGbEfedWna9nG5duKBbZmsSE5x-r8CcSmMyb2dtg2G75l-XwY3hspA93ipoatEL0tRdqJoBd-S8fQwDukRWlrQ5XkRI5AfJIXQ5lZTo3xM49Xd7UOs_BLS2tQcN9xkZZ9hGijA/s1600-h/ScreenHunter_7.gif"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 474px; height: 367px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieUGbEfedWna9nG5duKBbZmsSE5x-r8CcSmMyb2dtg2G75l-XwY3hspA93ipoatEL0tRdqJoBd-S8fQwDukRWlrQ5XkRI5AfJIXQ5lZTo3xM49Xd7UOs_BLS2tQcN9xkZZ9hGijA/s320/ScreenHunter_7.gif" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5097366164004503186" border="0" /></a><br /><br />Left to right, the first line is the start of our testing period, May 2003. the market is fine and normal. 2003 was not a great year in the test though acceptable and you can see why it did not fair so well as the first five months of the test were up and down but still had nice ranges.<br /><br />The second line on the chart represents October 2005 - when we started trading the system. so that bit of data between the first two lines are our test period - not a lot really is it? does it really look like it has all market conditions in it? no, it's a nice trending market most of the time.<br /><br />so line 3 is November 2006 - the peak of our grail accounts when we hit 100k and 1000% on account - a nice trending 14 months i think you will agree.<br /><br />Now look what happens between November 06 (line 3) and April 07 (line 4).<br /><br />Four Doji bars in a row. a severe sign of a constricting, indecisive market if ever i saw it.<br /><br />No trends, just spikes up and spikes down - the daily action mimicked this spikes up then down, spikes down then up.<br /><br />Grail was an intraday trend following system. during this time there were no trends, just a hell of a lot of reversals.<br /><br />During this time those in the forums were developing systems such as Firebird and grid trading systems - they did really well during this time because they were mean reversion systems - they traded counter trend to moves looking to profit on the retraces - and there were plenty of them. Systems similar in nature to Grail such as Hans 123 was also suffering and also died during this time.<br /><br />The Firebird guys tested like a few months and thought that covered all market conditions because they had lots of trades a day- clearly they were only testing these monthly doji bars and when the market did start to trend for as little as a few days they got burned badly only for it to turn in their direction the very day after they took losses.<br /><br />anyway, as you can see, those market conditions did not exist within our test period. In fact we never had more than a single doji in a row, let alone four of them.<br /><br />And that's what killed Grail, our test data just was not enough and did not cover all market conditions.<br /><br />Before i move away from this, just think for a minute and look at that chart.<br /><br />Every month someone is saying "the markets have changed, the volatility will not return" - well look at the chart - it stretches all the way back to 2001 - can you see any real market change there? - i know i can't, just a trending market with a few area's of consolidation is all.<br /><br />So, the questions arise like, well, if the test data had those kind of periods in then you may have never traded the system, and that's true - chances are we would've either not gone forward or we would have played it much less aggressive. The thing is we do not have a crystal ball and we don't know what we would have done.<br /><br />The fact remains that our test was not enough and for your information, for the test to have those conditions in it would have had to have been an nine year test and even then the four doji's in a row were much smaller in 1996.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Lessons</span><br /><br />The lesson here and my message to you is that no matter how much you test, no matter how far you go back there will always be a market condition that your test does not have. Next time it could be 7 doji's together or even 17. we don't know.<br /><br />The market ranges have also got much much smaller - in 2004 the range for cable was almost 170 pips a day 05 was around 150, 06 was 140ish and this year has barely managed 110. but go back further to the early 90's and you'll see ranges that will make you sweat just by looking.<br /><br />Grail was a trend system and without a trend she died.<br /><br />So, those of you designing systems are now saying 'well, what the hell can i do? - i have to rely on the fact that the past repeats it's self otherwise i might as well flip a coin'<br /><br />My answer is that you need do nothing different apart from add one thing extra to your system that we did not.<br /><br />in the testing phase our system worked for four years solid - two more years and i would never have traded again because i would have had 10 million quid in the bank. we were unlucky with market conditions and you may be luckier.<br /><br />LTCM (Long Term Capital Management) had around five years of amazing trading. they were the Wall Street kings for years. but then market conditions arose which weren't in their test period.<br /><br />here were a bunch of professors from MIT. they were the best of the best and made more money than anyone else before them. Yet they went bang big style bringing the financial world to it's knees for billions.<br /><br />One thing is for sure. no matter how good your system appears to be, no matter how much money it has already made and no matter how much confidence and testing you put into it - sooner or later a market condition will surface which you haven't seen before. we never know what is around the corner, you could run the gauntlet and have 10 years or more of great results. but sooner or later the market will throw off a wild one.<br /><br />What's needed is something that traders hate to have to think about.<br /><br />Long Term Capital Management didn't have one when they had to be rescued by the Federal bank for Billions. Nick Leeson didn't have one when he broke Barings Bank, the oldest bank in the world. and Soultrader and his team didn't have one when grail failed.<br /><br />What they didnt have was a method of identifying when the system failed and a plan of what to do when that happened.<br /><br />I have no doubt that grail Will become profitable again when the market returns to it's groove. In fact it's starting to look like the market ranges are coming back now. for months the 20 day average has been below 70 on cable. recently it's got above 100 for the first time in months. Grail will work again and i might have a punt again when it does - there could be another four years!.<br /><br />System designers need to add one more thing into their arsenal. They ask these questions when designing a system<br /><br /><ol><li>When to enter a trade</li><li>How much to trade</li><li>Where to place a stop</li><li>Where to exit a trade</li></ol><br />they are missing part 5 and part 6<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"> 5. How to identify when the market conditions cause the system to fail.</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"> 6. What to do when it's failed.</span><br /><br /><br />There is also something else that we have learned about our system design that i'd like to sharte with you.<br /><br />Grail was an intraday trend following system. it traded every day, when the intraday trends disappeared so did grails profits.<br /><br />Grail, with certain parameter changes would work on most currency pairs, in fact, most liquid markets.<br /><br />Grail was designed around a fundamental truth - trends exist. The fact that for the past six months that have not existed intraday does not mean they aren't there on longer timeframes.<br /><br />Our trading is still trend based, but no longer tied to a specific time period and no longer tied to a single pair. I now trade trends over the longer term and on any currency you can name. This new method of trading is better than Grail and so good things have come of this.<br /><br />My advice to you is that when you design a system make it a system based on a solid market principle. and don't limit yourself - if it's good it will work on ANY currency pair.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The End Is Nigh!</span><br /><br />This grailtrading blog has been here since 2005. I hope you've all enjoyed it. If all this blog does is make you implement parts 5 and 6 into your trading systems then it stands here for something and leaves a legacy.<br /><br />Since grail we have moved on as a team. We are scarred and battered but not beaten. The true mark of life's winners is that they do not give in.<br /><br />The whole experience has changed me as a person. I'm still an arrogant sod but i have tasted real humility and have been just about as low as you can get emotionally. I'm not going to say that I have come out stronger because it's not true. I've come out more cautious than ever before and very cynical - two traits of a trader that are never publicised in the books you read but two which will enable me to move forward with my chosen career in safety and with a degree of humility.<br /><br />Until you've been there you cannot possibly imagine what me and my team have been through from the heady heights of amazing returns to the gutter lows of complete despair.<br /><br />This is the final post for this blog and i really hope those of you who have shared this journey have learned from it. If you are a currency trader and are finding this for the very first time I strongly suggest that you read this blog from the very beginning. feel the highs and lows with us as you reach this final step.<br /><br /><a href="http://grailtrading.blogspot.com/2005_09_18_archive.html">Start reading here and use the archives</a><br /><br />And good luck to all for the future.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Team:</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Soultrader</span> <span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />Keres</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />Angiefx<br /></span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">Trevor Automan<br /></span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">Madisonfx </span> <span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />Mike Whisper</span> <span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />Fluty</span></span><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSAfBt9Rsql5HF8aylyVNxKR2zvNxFjGQUhUFYjSfouftgmJCKL5QHAVLyKyL9BTq3yUgJdzsfi7ePlsfsnu-QNZqrTBS5RvcHklpDfwa80sxI0UKp5R8ilLMiMSZtAO_jMCO1Kg/s1600-h/jsin61l.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 453px; height: 342px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSAfBt9Rsql5HF8aylyVNxKR2zvNxFjGQUhUFYjSfouftgmJCKL5QHAVLyKyL9BTq3yUgJdzsfi7ePlsfsnu-QNZqrTBS5RvcHklpDfwa80sxI0UKp5R8ilLMiMSZtAO_jMCO1Kg/s320/jsin61l.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5097392925945724578" border="0" /></a>Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-36281461115082906942007-02-26T16:44:00.000+00:002007-04-10T07:26:16.875+00:00Carry an Umbrella in your head.Ok, time to reveal what happened at Christmas then. I will tell you what happened but will not touch on the legal stuff - sit back, relax and have a giggle at my expense....<br /><br />You see over a year ago we devised this system we now trade called grail.<br /><br />Our backtests (of 3 years) showed us what the method would do and what we should expect. How often we would have drawdowns, how much we should make month by month and what sort of equity curve we should have.<br /><br />So we began trading it - this story is embedded in the pages of this site and if you want to look at the whole journey then please have a look around and you may get into the same feelings we did.<br /><br />Month by month we made money. Sure we had a losing month here and there and we had drawdowns - but the whole experience of trading the method with real money was very much as expected. In fact it was almost exactly as expected.<br /><br />Our journey went from initial excitement of starting off, to a nice steady feeling of expectation. Of course all this time we were not just sat here watching charts - all the time we were testing and verifying what our previous tests had given us.<br /><br />months and months of tests, all saying the same thing. whenever we had a new drawdown we just looked at our tests to see if this was anything new and, as it clearly was not new, we just kept on sailing on. Day by day.<br /><br />We began to take this success for granted - believe me, it's hard not to when week in, week out you make money and everything goes exactly as you have planned.<br /><br />So, what we did was to start looking at how we could make more money from this strategy. - if you look back in the posts you'll see where we did this.<br /><br />What we did would almost bring us and our account to our knees.<br /><br />At the time we had a different account called our 'income account' - on that account we still traded grail allbeit with a different leverage. but in that account we had equity targets - so when the accounts reached a certain level we could take out our winnings to live on etc.<br /><br />This meant that i could give up discretionary trading (something i've always managed to do but hated) and just let this golden method make my wages too. The idea was that having two accounts meant that we could let the main account grow and use the income account to live on. Makes sense yes?<br /><br />Anyway, the decisions we made next was to be the humble pie maker of a decision.<br /><br />We sat with spreadsheets and worked out how much of the account was 'safe money'. after some serious calculations and allowing for error we decided that 25% of the account was always 'safe money' - in other words, no matter how bad a drawdown we got that 25% would always be there and would manage to remain untouched. So, we then decided that at certain equity highs we could take out 25% - makes sense doesnt it that if 25% is never going to be touched by a drawdown, then why leave it in there? - well, that was our thinking anyway.<br /><br />So at an equity high of £40,000 we happily took out £10,000 - which was our initial stake into the fund. So what do we do with this 25% of 'safe money' - do we put it in a building society? do we invest it into national savings ora tax free ISA account?<br /><br />No, what we did was put it in the place that we believed would give the best return on our money - we put it in the income account so we could trade it.<br /><br />Everything is hunky dory, swimming along, making money in the main account and making money in the income account - taking our winnings and enjoying the results.<br /><br />So, what we were now doing was trading two accounts - the income account at a fixed leverage, never moving the stake and the main account which had a rather unique money management system.<br /><br />The main account staking plan was now being traded on what we called 'virtual' funds - so at £80,000 when we took out the second £10,000 we still traded the account as if it was still at £80,000 when in reality it was at £60,000 with the other £20,000 in the income account but still available.<br /><br />The income account generated over £40,000 in winnings during the first twelve months that were taken and spent on living and nice holidays etc.<br /><br />The account went into drawdown just as the main account did, and pulled back to new profits, just as the main account did. Exactly as expected and all was happy in la-la land.<br /><br />So, now you have pictures of people enjoying life, making money hand over fist and having fun - the traders dream. After all, what could go wrong?<br /><br />The aim with Grail was to make 1000% per year - 10k to 100K in year 1 and then 100K to 1000K in year 2 - 10k to 1 million as the title says.<br /><br />In November 2006, just one month later than expected we hit £100,000 for the main account (£80,000 +£20,000 'safe money') Fantastic! the plan was on track.<br /><br />Think about what we had done here. We had taken an account, worked out how much money was safe and had effectively ran this account at 100% efficiency. - the method did exactly what it was supposed to do - when it did a drawdown it always came back. ....always.<br /><br />This still did not change in December - it did come back. However what did come in December was something that we knew could come along any day - but that we had not mentally prepared for.<br /><br />During our 'pre' grail testing we did see a rather nasty drawdown of 525 pips. at best that is a 40% drawdown on a leveraged account and with our money management we knew we could ride it out. - at least we knew we could <span style="font-style: italic;">technically</span>.<br /><br />Of course by this time it didn't matter - we were untouchable - this has worked for months and months. Sure, we had seen nasty drawdowns but every time we did it re-enforced the fact that the system was stable<br /><br />December came and so did our monster drawdown - it did not just come along, it swooped down upon us in a matter of days. On november 30th we were at account highs, and by December 6th, just 4 trading days later we were already 26% down.<br /><br />On the 12th I was flying to New York nursing a drawdown of 38%.<br /><br />We had been at this level of drawdown before. What was new was the length of time it took to happen. Usually this depth of drawdown took a good 2 weeks to get there and here we were just seven days from our six figure high with £40,000 less.<br /><br />But now get this - the account is remember a 'virtual' £60,000 - just £40k in the account with £20 elsewhere right? - nope, because the income account was in an even deeper drawdown. the leverage on income was higher than the main account you see.<br /><br />You can imagine the way I felt in NYC. I had a system that i believed in so much which had still not reached it's worst drawdown from the past. And I had a team of people with just as much money on the line as me. oh yes, I had a ball in NYC :(<br /><br />By the 22nd of December, the date of my return to the UK the account was a whopping 48% drawn down.<br /><br />This was represented by a £48k virtual balance which was not there - the extra £20,000 had gone from the income account which was hovering at the £10,000 level - the amount i originally put in it and the main account was at £28,000.<br /><br />From a combined account high on November 30th 2006 of £110,000 I had £38,000 left.<br /><br />Nice close for Christmas was that.<br /><br />Its important to note at this point that the system STILL had not failed. in fact it could go for another 100 pips to beat the previous drawdown from our tests in 2003.<br /><br />Many of you may be thinking at this point that the system had failed. but it had not. We had failed the system.<br /><br />What had failed was the way we had managed the account to 100% efficiency. We had worked out that 25% of the account would be safe <span style="font-style: italic;">and then went on to make that safe money unsafe</span>. basically in our greed what we did was create a fantastic system, but one that if it ever did fail would leave the account totally empty. That's 100% efficiency. Brilliant in theory, devastating in reality. Certainly not my finest hour and i'm sure many of you are enjoying the mental pictures of me squirming under a drawdown. Just remember tho that at least ive got to this position :)<br /><br />So here we are with a realisation that we are deep shit and if we do see the mother of all drawdowns, we are fubar with nothing.<br /><br />Well, nothing is a bit of an overstatement, we did take like £40k out of it and we still had £38k left so not bad for a 10k start.<br /><br />BUT, it was decision time. It was Christmas and we closed at the bottom of our biggest ever drawdown with the thin xmas trading days to look forward to. brilliant (not).<br /><br />The mistake was clear. It was the fact that we took it for granted that the system would not fail us and in fact it didn't - we failed the system. Taking the money out and then trading that money the same way was very foolish and the realisation of what we had done was very humbling to say the least and still is.<br /><br />We had a choice - continue with the current stakes and risk that in three trading days we are dead in the water. Or lick our wounds, take the hit and live to trade another day.<br /><br />Over Christmas we decided on the latter. We drew a line under December 27th and reset the clock. Whatever our balance was at the close of business that day was the new starting point. Our money management would be reset to flat and the money left would be pooled inhto one singular new grail as opposed to income and main growth.<br /><br />And that's what we did. Of course what happened was bound to happen - the next 12 straight days were winners. if we would have stuck with the stakes we were at then within those 12 days we would have seen new equity highs of over £120,000. but there are lots of shoulda woulda coulda tales in this game. Shit happens and we sat in it big style.<br /><br />We learned a very hard lesson and had to eat some humble pie as im chewing on now to you lot. The lesson is that we never ever take any part of the account for granted - had that extra 20K still been in the account we would have weathered the storm. It wasn't and we didn't.<br /><br /><br />Since this time we had a 61% month for January and have just had a poor february at - 12% but we move into March with a renewed outlook .<br /><br />I have also changed my broker strategy. my account is now spread over several brokers rather than just one and whenever I need money, which to be honest aint often, I will dip into it.<br /><br />After xmas I started trading again with around £38,000 and the last high of the account since then was in the mid $70k's - I took £3,000 for some living expenses (well, a nice shiny new toy actually) and it now leaves me starting March 2007 at around £60,000. It's been a storming start to the year so far so let's hope it continues.<br /><br />So, that's my story of what happened at Christmas - the season of goodwill :) I hope you've enjoyed the story and that you may learn from it.<br /><br />This is the true story of what almost brought me to my knees as a trader - I've been trading now for almost 5 years so if you are new in this game or if you are not the lesson is there - never<br />but never take anything for granted.<br /><br />Those who know me know that i'm not good at humility and don't take well to making myself look a twat. It's not been easy for me to tell you this story and would have been easier just to close the blog and never return.<br /><br />However I think that there are many out there who could easily make this same mistake and if I can stop them doing this then maybe one day they will thank me and tip their hat to the Soultrader and his team.<br /><br />Finally, and to get give this story a tagline for you to remember - Always remember the trader's golden rule - under every silver lining - there's a fucking huge thick black cloud waiting to pour down on you. Make sure you carry an umbrella in your head.<br /><br />This is the last post of this blog - The aim continues to make the million, but for now it will remain privateSoultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-19562049690498918272007-01-17T08:43:00.000+00:002007-01-17T09:08:22.655+00:00Stop assumingHi All, just thought i would drop in a comment here about my blog and the talk going around the web<br /><br />I don't normally bother commenting but ive seen so many visitors come from sites such as forextsd and moneytec that you are obviously interested. There have been some comments in some forums that need to be addressed<br /><br />Firstly let me tell you a few facts.<br /><br />1. I dont have a problem with a 50% drawdown- in fact im happy providing the system does not touch 65%.<br /><br />2. the bigger the drawdown the better the system works - thats because of a very clever money management strategy which i cannot reveal.<br /><br />3. at the moment, due to a legal reason, i cannot explain exactly why this last drawdown caused a problem - one thing is for sure it was not the depth of the drawdown - the 50% thing is quite acceptable (though yes, it is painful and i would prefer not to have it!).<br /><br />Sometime in the near future i will be posting to the blog exactly why it was a problem and what lessons we learned and the actions taken.<br /><br />Since Christmas eve the system had 12 winning days on the trot - the drawdown was 415 pips and the recovery 515 pips in 2 weeks.<br /><br />The project to make 1 million from £10k is still a reality and is still alive - the timescale has changed but then this is a long journey and one worth taking - when a pilot in London boards his plane to go to New York he is off course 90% of the time. Making corrections as he goes along and doing the same things over and over again, making small changes here and small changesthere, eventually he reaches his destination.<br /><br />what i would say to you is don't write this off yet. Many people are talking about the grail experiment and are saying it's over and done - nothing could be further from the truth and all will be revealed as soon as I can.<br /><br />so knock that smirk off your face right now! (lol)Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-28211362579397456952006-12-29T17:43:00.000+00:002006-12-29T18:27:39.994+00:00Merry Christmas ... NotBit of a double edged sword on this post.<br /><br />Firstly to report results which are rather shitty, and second to suspend / close the blog, possibly forever. Reasons to follow.<br /><br />First of all lets talk turkey about the results.<br /><br />The month was terrible - in fact the worst that we have experienced in the 14 months trading it, however not the worst on record from our tests.<br /><br />We suffered this month a 48% drawdown. we suffered this drawdown at a point when i was supposed to be enjoying a holiday in New York - it was 30% when I left the UK and 45% when i got back. needless to say due to things beyond my control, much of my holiday was totally spoilt.<br /><br />The month of December ended up at -45% on the account - from £100,502 down to £55,000 The system still works and is within parameters but the money management, which at the end of the day is the bit that creates the severity of drawdown, was at fault and has since been rectified.<br /><br />We were running the account at 100% efficiency - which meant that at a max drawdown there would just be enough in the account to sustain it. what i didnt take into account was the psychological pressure of actually getting close to reaching this level and seeing the account decimated.<br /><br />Even after five years of trading the market can still humble you, and this drawdown certainly has. so if you are reading this and you're a trader - dont ever think you have this thing licked until you are sat in your superyacht with the obligatory Russian hooker eating a mouthful of pork sausage.<br /><br />Its also uncovered some other rather unsavory elements of life that i wont discuss on here, those reading this know what i'm referring to and i dont know wether to apologise profusely or call the lawyers - one of those morals Vs money type events. Today i reckon the lawyers, yesterday i thought forgive and forget - you know the kind of pickle i mean? One thing is for sure it won't go away by pretending it doesn't exist so fun fun fun the first week in Jan one way or the other. The ball is in someone elses court at the moment so we will see which way it lands by the 5th Jan.<br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.sonypictures.com/movies/rocky/blog/images/DF-02108_r3.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 205px; height: 308px;" src="http://www.sonypictures.com/movies/rocky/blog/images/DF-02108_r3.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>Back to trading metaphors now ... The new Rocky film has a great scene where balboa is telling his son what makes a winner. Something along the lines of "it aint how hard you can hit - it's how hard a hit you can take and still remain moving forward" - well, never a truer word was spoken.<br /><br /><br />Ive took a large 'hit' on my account and i've rode the punch. I'm bouncing back and still moving forward. I ain't saying that i'm a Balboa but i'm sure as hell not through yet.<br /><br />So, to this point i hope that youve enjoyed the journey and it's with sadness that I am to close this blog.<br /><br />Grail goes on and will I am sure go from strength to strength with the lessons we have learned.<br /><br />However I am bringing this blog to an end. It may be temporary or it may end up being permanent. The chances are that i will update the blog at sometime in the future just to let you know that it's still ploughing on, however it will not be regular and may never happen so just check back every 3 months or so.<br /><br />There are a few reasons for my decision, some of which I cannot talk about at the moment, however the main one is that because of the blog I am getting emotionally involved when the system has a losing month. The fact that it's in a drawdown at the end of a month shouldnt matter because it peaks and troughs no matter what the date is - the fact it's at the end of the month is immaterial.<br /><br />Getting emotionally involved in the trading of a mechanical system is not good - you start to analyse every facet of the trades and it can drive you nuts - it almost did in New York and I can't have that.<br /><br />It is more important to me to make the project a reality and produce the money for my and my teams future than it is to tell you about it and massage my ego. So i'm afraid the blog has to go. It's been fun and all that and thank's for the massage (Rub & Tug??).<br /><br />The soultrader diary blog will continue with various bits and bobs - might even post up some pictures from New York soon.<br /><br />For now, please everyone enjoy the rest of the holiday break and here's to a prosperous 2007 :) Thanks for reading.Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-78234550028351507392006-12-01T10:46:00.000+00:002006-12-01T11:13:58.465+00:00Month 14 - November 2006Well, here we are - cooking with gas now!<br /><br />This month the account truly met the half way stage. We have managed to turn £10,000 into £100,000 - that is a 1000% increase since inception. some going eh? - step two is to take the 100k and get to 1000k - again 1000% - now are you doubters starting to believe?<br /><br />Of course this is still a gamble, as the forex market always is - all could come crashing down in a matter of days - scary eh, this is what underpants invented for!<br /><br />This month was nothing special, in fact with the action in the markets I expected a lot more than we did make. Still, we keep making new highs on the account so we are in an uptrend still :)<br /><br />There have been two major changes in the strategy this month. The first is a fundamental system change should net around another 30% of pips over the year and the second was a money management change to ensure we stay on track to target or even exceed it.<br /><br />At the moment we are still behind the original targets but are on track for an xmas 2007 Million :) come on Santa!!<br /><br />It was rather scary actually, the reason for the fundamnental change was that whilst we were doing some routine testing we came upon an anomaly - this anomaly when we looked deeper turned out to be very scary. - we have been very lucky with how weve done grail - the thing we discovered would have blown the account up any day. we were so convinced by what we saw that we made the change immediately.<br /><br />Still, that's what's good about our team, always testing everything!<br /><br /><br />Ok, onto the month results for November.<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">All figures include the £20,000 in the holding account </span>(see previous posts for details)<br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Opening balance:.............................£88,328</li></ul> <ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Closing Balance: ..............................£ 100,502<br /><br /></li><li>P/L £ .................................................£12174<br /><br /><br /></li><li>% Gain ................................................13.78%<br /><br /></li><li>Lowest account value: ......... ....... ....£ 67,960<br /><br /></li><li>Highest account value: ....................£100,502<br /><br /></li><li>Maximum Drawdown: .....................£20,368 = 23.05% peak to valley</li></ul><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger2/3536/2067/1600/939024/November2006.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger2/3536/2067/400/110610/November2006.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger2/3536/2067/1600/256629/November2006state.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger2/3536/2067/400/478612/November2006state.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-7281510876167256662006-11-02T09:33:00.000+00:002006-11-02T10:04:50.959+00:00Month Thirteen October 2006Okee Dokee then - Month 13, or is it year two month One? - whatever!<br /><br />October was pretty dull for the first half still crawling back from the last Drawdown but that certainly changed during the second half.<br /><br />Looks like the market started to expand and there is nothing Grail likes better.<br /><br />I know it was a tough month for many. I know for a fact a lot of traders lost a lot of money. I was talking to a collegue and imagined most traders running around like headless chickens - changing systems, changing entry parameters etc etc.<br /><br />We just sat there patiently waiting. We had made no money for almost 3 months but we got to a point where we werent losing any either - just went up a bit then down a bit. We didnt change anything and just waited - in markets like that the grail trader is best positioned for the strike.<br /><br />The strike came in the last 2 weeks of October and for the month we have had a stunning result as you will see below.<br /><br />You will also notice that the account is another £10,000 short of it's actual size. Thats because of the income account - for those of you who can't be arsed to look back in the blog allow me to explain.<br /><br />Each of the grail crew operate two accounts - the main grail account (you see my own every month on here) and a second account which we refer to as the income account.<br /><br />The income account uses a similar strategy as the main account with the exception that it has a different money management approach and different criteria for entry designed to maximise a monthly return of pips.<br /><br />Now you may be thinking - isnt that what the main one does too? - well no it isnt actually, on the main account pips are important of course but the money management we use actually means that pips arent nearly as important as win/loss percentage.<br /><br />Believe it or not we often have times when we are negative pips for the month but positive in cash. Work that one out on a dark night :)<br /><br />Anyway, i'm digressing. The idea is that every time £10,000 is safe from drawdown that we then move £10k into the income account and trade it - in effect we are again compounding the compounded winnings.<br /><br />So, to cut a long story short every £40K we move £10k into the Income or 'Holding' account. This month we hit £80k and so another £10k found its way transferred. The holding account now has £20k in it from grail along with it's initial 10k.<br /><br />This is complicating isnt it but all you have to know is that what shows on the statements after this month is 20k down from what it actually has made :) - you'll see where i withdrew on the statement.<br /><br />So, down to the monthly report then.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Month 13 October 2006<br /><br />All figures include £20,000 in holding account not shown on statements<br /></span></span><br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Opening balance:.............................£61,785</li></ul> <ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Closing Balance: ..............................£ 88,328<br /><br /></li><li>P/L £ .................................................£26,543<br /><br /><br /></li><li>% Gain ................................................42.96%<br /><br /></li><li>Lowest account value: ......... ....... ....£ 55,624<br /><br /></li><li>Highest account value: ....................£88,328<br /><br /></li><li>Maximum Drawdown: .....................£6,160 = 9.9% peak to valley</li></ul><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3536/2067/1600/october-2006.0.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3536/2067/320/october-2006.0.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3536/2067/1600/october-2006-2.0.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/3536/2067/320/october-2006-2.0.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-1159537587196739032006-09-29T12:42:00.000+00:002006-10-03T09:35:44.976+00:00Happy Birthday To Yoooooo! MONTH 12<object height="350" width="425"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/GbLQJnwHC70"><param name="wmode" value="transparent"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/GbLQJnwHC70" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" height="350" width="425"></object><br /><br />Well, we made it.<br /><br />Grail is one year old this weekend as is the blog.<br /><br />This weeks report therefore is a special one as it will show the entire annual result.<br /><br />Before you go below and read that report though I want to cover some of the highs and the lows of the year I have just lived through.<br /><br />Here's an interesting question though - how many of you reading this were trading forex last year and are still trading forex now? - chances are it's not many and i'd love you to make some comments this month - Happy birthday messages are welcome too :)<br /><br />I guess it's pretty amazing that the project lasted a full 12 months. But i do have to tell you that although the system is just about the same as it was 12 months ago, it has undergone some changes throughout that time.<br /><br />Highs and lows of the year:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">1) The 'New Car' scenario (High)</span><br /><br />During the year the Grail team needed a way to measure how successful we were being on a daily basis. We opted for the "how much of a car have we won today" - it started off with a full set of tyres on a day that we cleared say £400.<br /><br />The first high was when we won the equiv of a Kia Picanto in one day - around £4500.<br /><br />The real high on this came when in a single day we made more than our initial £10,000 stake.<br /><br />The last time I broke the record it was £17,460 - the equivalent of a reasonable BMW<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">2) The stop change day (High)</span><br /><br />One day after some significant testing and research we decided to change our initial stop limit. we actually made our initial stop larger. two days later as we watched our trade go against us - it went past our old stop .... went within 2 pips of our new stop ... turned around and ended the day on a 100+ pip winner.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">3. the 0.1 pip stopout (Low)</span><br /><br />One day the market quotes on the different brokers was a fair way out of kilter. One of our team was stopped out in one direction by 0.1 of a pip for a hefty loss whilst everyone else closed eod for a winner.<br /><br />as for 1 pip stopouts there have been lots and always will be, but we think that 0.1 is talking the piss.<br /><br />Another one pip stopout was when one of our team was testing on a real account the system without a stop at all - we were all stopped out for 1 pip whilst the tester went on to close at +240 pips. GRRRR still sore about that one!<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">4. Lying Bastard Brokers.</span><br /><br />I cannot reveal this as yet as I and others still have accounts with them - but watch out next year for the full story.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">5. Retiring from 'active daytrading'</span><br /><br />when i gave up chasing the price in May / June time it was a high.<br /><br />Neither you, I or anyone can predict which way the market will go in the next 10 seconds never mind the next 10 minutes - so if you are still doing that then my advice is give it up and find another way.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">6. Trading OPM</span><br /><br />I never ever wanted to trade Other Peoples money - I had enough on trading my own. I was asked time and time again to trade OPM and i turned it down time and time again.<br /><br />My long time trading buddy from NYC has badgered me for years to trade OPM and finally i said yes.<br /><br />Because i said yes and had to work out a way so i could do it and still have a life, nip out to the shops etc I discovered the marvelous world of automated trading. - for those who are searching for an automated strategy i can tell you that it is possible - very very few have managed to make money trading a robot and i'm happy to be one of them.<br /><br />Most people who want a trading robot look the wrong way around - they look at robot traders that make money - change your focus - find a system that makes money and then make a robot out of it.<br /><br />A special thanks goes out to Trevor Beatty here for teaching this old dog some new tricks and putting up with my tireless whinging about why a robot trader doesn't do what it's supposed to do. Thanks for the last 12 months Trevor.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">7. Laughing My Tits Off (High)</span><br /><br />The final high for me this year comes every time i listen to so called tradin guru's who say that if you can make 20-30% a year that you are doing well - well the results below for a whole year prove that this perception is <span style="font-weight: bold;">TOTAL BOLLOCKS</span>.<br /><br />Im sorry Paris, Zen, and all those others who say that you cant do it - but you can and it matters not how much money you do it with - millions in the market are just a drop.<br /><br />Anyway, onto the results and analasys then.<br /><br />To simplify things with the holding account I now just list the system gains and tell you whats in the holding account - the statements will show X number of pounds less where X is the amount of cash in the holding account.<br /><br />This month was a bit of a shitter again - didnt lose money but didn't make a new account high the effects of this will hbe shown below the account pics in the annual review.<br /><br />Don't you think that September was a little weird? - not like any september i've seen for a long time. I wonder if the market is going through yet another change. August is always crap because of holidays etc but september is usually a serious trading month. Just makes you think is all.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">8. Working with the best forex team in the world! (Very High)</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Mike Keres - UK</span>, the best analytical guy i've ever met and my number one partner in grail development. Thanks for the last few years Mike, the superyacht gets closer every day.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Angie - France</span> without whom we may never have stumbled across grail's potential and without whom we wouldnt have any sex appeal in the group. Thanks Angie XX<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Trev - UK</span> our Programming guru - the only bloke ive ever heard that managed to get metatrader to trade on oanda, cmc or any platform you can name - genius even though he's a southern git.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Keith - New York</span> - Our USA branch of the grail lunatics - chart guru, fund raiser and out and out party hound! - spends time with the famous people of NYC at night and we aspiring multi millionaires during the trading day. I've traded with keith ever since i found forex. Thanks for the last four years Keith<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Whispy - UK</span> - A Guy who had never traded before and bought the Hilda system off me. Mike is a system hound, always on the lookout for new ideas for an old problem - how to make the market work for you. Out of anyone Mike has progressed more in the last 12 months and at a greater speed than most i've ever met. Keep it up mike - and i'm not talking about the x-ray camcorder ya perv!<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Mike - Australia</span> - No trading team would be complete without an Australian arm and someone with age and control on his side. The consistent steady player of the group and another ideas man Fluty manages to inject some decorum into our mad world. A fully qualified trading teacher too! Thanks Mike.<br /><br /><br />Results:<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Month 12 September 2006</span></span><br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Cash in holding account: .................£10,000<br /><br /></li><li>Opening balance:.............................£52,077</li></ul> <ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Closing Balance: ..............................£ 61,785<br /><br /></li><li>% Gain ................................................18.64%<br /><br /></li><li>£ Gain .............................................£9708<br /><br /></li><li>Lowest account value: ......... ....... ....£ 47,649<br /><br /></li><li>Highest account value: ....................£65,684<br /><br /></li><li>Maximum Drawdown: .....................£6,160 = 9.3% peak to valley</li></ul><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/septtember-06-anniversaryst.0.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/320/septtember-06-anniversaryst.0.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/septtember-06-anniversary.0.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/320/septtember-06-anniversary.0.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Annual Grail Report 1/10/2005 - 30/9/2006</span></span><br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Opening Balance.................................£10,000<br /><br /></li><li>Closing Balance...................................£ 61,786<br /><br /></li><li>Lowest account value...........................£ 8,630<br /><br /></li><li>Highest A/C Value................................£77,262<br /><br /></li><li>ROI - High Point...................................672%<br /><br /></li><li>ROI End of year ...................................517%<br /><br /></li><li>Maximum Drawdown...........................£29,613<br /><br /></li><li>Max Drawdown % ................................38.3% Peak To Valley<br /><br /></li><li>Biggest Win Day <span style="font-size:85%;">(1 A/C only) </span> <span style="font-size:100%;">...................£12,180</span><br /><br /></li><li>Biggest Loss Day <span style="font-size:85%;">(1 A/C only)</span> ..................£-6314<br /><br /></li><li>Max Consecutive Wins ...........................5<br /><br /></li><li>Max Consecutive Losses ........................5<br /><br /></li><li>Number Wins ........................................147 (Includes 0 days)<br /><br /></li><li>Number Losses .....................................111<br /><br /></li><li>Win / Loss % .........................................57%<br /><br /></li><li>Total Pips .............................................1720<br /><br /></li><li>Average Pips Per Trade ........................7<br /><br /></li><li>Biggest Win (Pips) ...............................180<br /><br /></li><li>Highest Monthly Gain ..........................46.7%<br /><br /></li><li>Average Monthly Gain .........................18%<br /><br /></li><li>Earnings <span style="font-size:78%;">(from Holding Fund)</span> .......................£6,500</li></ul><br />So, there you have it.<br /><br />I included the earning from the holding fund which is really great seeing as it's only been in there 3 months. In reality though that is only half the picture as I added a further 10k to the holding fund which is my income account - pays the bills etc. so from £20k I have so far since January withdrawn £30,000 in wages :) better that being in the rat race that's for sure.<br /><br />So, the question is, did the year go to plan?<br /><br />Well, yes and no. In August when we topped 77k we were near enough spot on target. Probably about 1 week behind. However the recent monster drawdown and losing month has put us back somewhat.<br /><br />I wont really be able to say wether 2006 was better than 2005 till the end of the year. 2005 did 738% from Jan to Dec wheras 2004 did 1650% - 2006 has yet to show it's colours, but if anything I'm expecting it to pick up to round the year off.<br /><br />I'm now estimating that we will hit the million around the end of December next year - rather a nice Christmas Present don't you think? - this is still a stretch target based on the performance - to do that needs an average of 20% per month and as you can see we have managed 18% this last 12 months.<br /><br />I believe that if you also add in the holding accounts profits the we will hit the million before this time - each time the main account hits a multiple of 40k I take 10k out of that account and trade it seperately in the holding account. The aim is to get the holding account up to £100 per pip which will result in £20,000 per month on average in income. That will be nice :)<br /><br />as a result of that the timer on the page has been reset to end at midnight Xmas Eve 2007 and the project is extended until then - of course we now have a chance of hitting the target early if fortune smiles on us.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Plans for the next 12 months go like this</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">1. New Grail Timetable</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Dec 31st 2006: £120,000</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">March 31st 2007: £209,000</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">June 31st 2007: £361,000</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sept 31st 2007: £625000</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Dec 25th 2007: £1,000000</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">2. Managed Account balance up to 10 million</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">3. New fallback system</span> (been working on this for 6 months already!)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">4. New system for managed funds based on Multiple intraday trades but still Mechanical<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 153);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">And That's it.<br /><br />I hope you wish me well and maybe take some inspiration from my first year results. Its been quite an emotional time - scary, elation, highs and lows but myself and my collegues have made it.<br /><br />Please feel free to leave comments on this thread, and till next time, Take care :)<br /></span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);"></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span>Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-1157107825066971782006-09-01T10:21:00.000+00:002006-09-01T10:50:25.103+00:00Month 11 August 2006Ok Month 11 August 2006<br /><br />Its been a poor month and is the second losing month since inception. Not a massive losing month but annoying that it came just as we got back onto target. for the 24 months<br /><br />This month has prompted me to look at the way we trade the system and next month i may be making another change as to how I trade it - basically i may be trading less but making more.<br /><br />Anyway, by the 10th August we were into a new high on the account of 77k which put us within a whisker of bieng back on track and then we entered this drawdown period. we are currently at a drawdown of 33%.<br /><br />Ive actually got to a point where i look forward to drawdowns as I know that the lift out of them will be swift. I also know that the deeper the drawdown the more agressive the lift out of it.<br /><br />Anyway, next month is a big one for the report as it will mark the first anniversary of the account and will hgerald our first annual report for Grail.<br /><br />If there are any changes in schedule to be made it will be next month so until then, ill leave you with the monthly report.<br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Opening balance:£50,556</li></ul> <ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Closing Balance: £ 42,078<br /></li></ul><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Cash in holding account: £10,000<br /><br /></li><li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Account Valuation total Last Month £60,556</span></li></ul><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Account Valuation total £52,078</span></li><li><br /><br /></li><li>P/L: -£8478<br /><br /></li><li>% Gain on account: -14.00%<br /><br /></li><li>Lowest account value: £ 51,590<br /><br /></li><li>Highest account value: £77,762<br /><br /></li><li>Maximum Drawdown: £26,172 = 33.6% peak to valley (ouch!)<br /></li></ul><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/sep06.1.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/320/sep06.1.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-1154354579443690642006-07-31T13:21:00.000+00:002006-08-01T09:42:15.700+00:00Month 10 July 2006Gosh, doesnt time fly!- month 10 already.<br /><br />Mind you, i wish it were month 24!! but i guess you shouldnt wish your life away.<br /><br />You will most likely find it hard to follow the account this month from the screenshots because I have moved the account from Capital Spreads to my new broker. what i actually did was move the difference between the investment account (the big one) and the income account (the smaller one) so in effect the accounts have changed hands over the brokers.<br /><br />so you'll find the screenshots are a little weird and you may not be able to track the changes as i took £4500 ish wages at the same time.<br /><br /><br />Anyway, the month was a good one all the way through really. didnt break any records at all but was kind of 'steady eddie' through the month.<br /><br />The peak of the account came on the 28th with 2 days to the end of the month and then a couple of wanky days kinda took the shine off it.<br /><br />Still, just about to plan i think with a high watermark of 65k (combined with holding acc)<br /><br />I bet there are plenty who are beginning to say to themselves hmmm - those who think its not possible to produce 20% a month on average - well, keep reading cos I've done it for 10 months now.<br /><br />Anyway, heres the report for Month 10<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);"> Monthly Report - July 2005</span><br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Opening balance:£38,411</li></ul> <ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Closing Balance: £ 50,556<br /></li></ul><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Cash in holding account: £10,000</li></ul><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Account Valuation total £60,556</span></li><li><br /><br /></li><li>P/L: £12,090<br /><br /></li><li>% Gain on account: 24.96%<br /><br /></li><li>Lowest account value: £ 33,255<br /><br /></li><li>Highest account value: £50,080<br /><br /></li><li>Maximum Drawdown: £5,156 = 10.6% peak to valley</li></ul>Screenshots of both accounts are below to show the transfer from one to the other - note that the new account shows the earlier dates at the bottom and the latest dates at the top. - this is opposite to the previous broker i was using.<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/July2006month10.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/320/July2006month10.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/grailjuly06.jpg"><br /></a>Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-1151926816542162582006-07-03T10:29:00.000+00:002006-07-10T12:15:35.120+00:00Month 9 - Third qtr results June 2006Here we are then, 9 month and the third quarter.<br /><br />June did not set any fires burning apart from a new record on days earnings . on 2nd June I made almost £14k in one day. This record does tend to get broken every month or two so i'll keep you updated next month if it breaks again.<br /><br />Anyway, onto the month. A month of very volatile moves followed by almost no moves at all. The early part of the month were nice trading territory and then we slipped into a period of consolidation which meant tight ranges and a series of loss days.<br /><br />As usual though the end of the month contract expiries brought us some movement and pulled us back.<br /><br />The drawdown this month was the worst since inception running at 35.8% but we are now getting used to this.<br /><br />Some more changes were made to the system this month with the introduction of some dynamic variants. Unfortunately this did little due to market conditions. but it's interesting to look back at the q1 and 2 results and note that by month 6 we had done 127% and q3 alone has managed 116%. several changes in the system took place in this period and obviously they have paid off.<br /><br />I havent included a report showing the figures since inception but FYI we are at +383%.<br /><br />The next big report is the yearly one at which time we may adjust the timetable for the million. we are thinking it couldnow be a few months late - maybe Xmas 2007 rather than October giving the account an extra quarter. - time will tell. I guess if we took into account the income account gains then we will hit the million on time, however we are not including this<br /><br />Unfortunately we are still behind target considerably - the end of the month has happened at a time when we are in a drawdown. Our target for qtr3 was an account high of 58k yet we have reached only 51k so still really about 3 weeks behind schedule.<br /><br />This months return does not help either being well below par<br /><br />The report for the month is below as usual along with a quarterley report. note that due to system changes more has been blacked out on the screenshot but I have left the centre visible so you can see no money was added.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Quarterley Report March 31 - June 31</span><br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Opening balance:£22,510</li></ul> <ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Closing Balance: £ 38,411<br /></li></ul><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>+Cash in holding account £10,000</li></ul><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>P/L: £25,901<br /><br /></li><li>% Gain on account: 116%<br /><br /></li><li>Lowest account value: £ 22,510<br /><br /></li><li>Highest account value: £51,069 (inc holding account)<br /><br /></li><li>Maximum Drawdown: £18,282 = 35.8%</li></ul><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);"> Monthly Report - June 2005</span><br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Opening balance:£34,461</li></ul> <ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Closing Balance: £ 38,411</li></ul><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Cash in holding account: £10,000</li></ul><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Account Valuation total £48,411</span></li><li><br /><br /></li><li>P/L: £3,950<br /><br /></li><li>% Gain on account: 8.88%<br /><br /></li><li>Lowest account value: £ 22,787<br /><br /></li><li>Highest account value: £41,069<br /><br /></li><li>Maximum Drawdown: £18,282 = 35.8% peak to valley</li></ul><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/grailJune.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/320/grailJune.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/ScreenHunter_39.0.jpg"><br /></a>Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-1149155570341147522006-06-01T09:46:00.000+00:002006-07-10T12:14:45.696+00:00Month 8 May 2006May has been a fine month - but before i start on that i want to remind you of a story you once read as a child.<br /><br /><span style="font-family:Trebuchet MS,Arial,Helvetica;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 128, 0);font-size:130%;" ><img src="http://www.dltk-kids.com/members/images/stortoise.gif" alt="coloring page" /></span></span><br /><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td><span style="font-family:Trebuchet MS,Arial,Helvetica;"> <span style="font-size:130%;"> "Nah nah nah boo boo, I'm faster than you!“ shouted Harriet Hare as she sped down the road.</span> <p><span style="font-size:130%;">Normally, Timothy Tortoise was a very easy going reptile.<span style=""> He was happy roaming through the forest at his own pace. But the nasty taunts of Harriet Hare were starting to make him angry.</span></span></p> <span style=""> <p><span style="font-size:130%;">Later that day Timothy finally arrived (last as usual) at the playground by the river. Sure enough, as soon as he arrived, Harriet started teasing him again.<br /> </span></p><p:colorscheme colors="#FFFFFF,#000000,#808080,#000000,#00CC99,#3333CC,#CCCCFF,#B2B2B2"> </p:colorscheme></span> <!--mstheme--></span></td> <td valign="top"><!--mstheme--><span style="font-family:Trebuchet MS,Arial,Helvetica;"><!--mstheme--></span><br /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><!--mstheme--><span style="font-family:Trebuchet MS,Arial,Helvetica;"> </span><p> <span style="font-family:Trebuchet MS,Arial,Helvetica;"> <span style=""> <span style="font-size:130%;">“A heavy green shell and short little feet, you’re the slowest guy I ever did meet!”, Harriet taunted.</span></span></span></p> <span style="font-family:Trebuchet MS,Arial,Helvetica;"> </span><p><span style="font-family:Trebuchet MS,Arial,Helvetica;"><span style="font-size:130%;">Timothy slowly turned his head to look Harriet straight in the eye, “I am too slow or so you say.<span style=""> To find the truth, let’s race today!”</span></span></span></p> <span style="font-family:Trebuchet MS,Arial,Helvetica;"> <span style=""> <p><span style="font-size:130%;">All the animals in the playground gasped. A race? Between Harriet Hare, the fastest runner and Timothy Turtle the last to show up? What an odd thing that would be to watch.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:130%;">“I’ll set up a course for you to race on”, offered Freddy the Fox.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:130%;">Harriet Hare laughed out loud, “A race you want? A race you’ll see. I know I’m faster than Timothy!”</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:130%;">And so Freddy the Fox set up a race course all the way from the playground by the river to the big oak tree at the edge of the forest. All of the animals met at the starting line early in the afternoon.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:130%;">“On your mark…” shouted Freddy.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:130%;">“Just a minute Freddy,” giggled Beatrice the Bear, “um, Timothy hasn’t quite made it to the starting line yet.”</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:130%;">“I’m fine,” smiled Timothy, “I always make it to where I’m headed.”</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:130%;">“Get set… Go!” chanted the animals all together.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:130%;">Harriet Hare was off like a shot. She made it around the corner by the meadow before Timothy even had all of his feet across the starting line.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:130%;">Freddy the Fox groaned and shook his head. He'd been hoping his friend Timothy would somehow manage to beat Harriet -- she was always such a show off. "Oh well, let's head over to the finish line everyone. If we cut across the meadow maybe we'll manage to get there in time to watch Harriet cross the finish line." Off the animals went, leaving Timothy to slowly make his way down the path Freddy had set as the race course.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:130%;">Meanwhile, Harriet had run so fast that she could actually see the finish line already. She had to sit down, she was laughing so hard, "I can't believe the nerve of him, to think that he might actually win!" </span></p> <p><span style="font-size:130%;">Harriet gazed over to the finish line and realized that none of the spectators were there yet. "Perhaps I'll rest underneath this tree, so when I win the crowds will see. After all that turtle's slow, he'll take all day to catch up I know."</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:130%;">Harriet lay down and promptly fell asleep.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:130%;">Timothy made his way down the path along the river, across the meadow and right past the snoozing Harriet. He didn't stop and rest anywhere along the race track.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:130%;">As Timothy approached the finish line all of the animals began to cheer. Harriet awoke from her nap and ran as fast as she could, but she was too late. Timothy picked his last foot up across the line an instant before she made it there.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:130%;">Harriet pulled her ears and stomped her feet, "No fair, no fair, no fair, I say! I am the fastest any day."</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:130%;">Timothy smiled and nodded slowly, "It's true I have a slower pace, but </span></p> <p align="center"><span style="font-size:6;">slow but steady wins the race!"</span></p></span></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br />Ok, indulge me :) you will see from this months results weve done quite well, the figures you wont see yet are that so far from inception the account has grown 342% and at one point this month it was over 400%!<br /><br />Now there are traders out there scratching their head and panicking all day trying to squeeze every pip they can out of the market - they won't give up and have sleepless nights whilst the hare in their head says "keep going!!" they burn themselves out and never actually get anywhere apart from in a big hole.<br /><br />Now this is the bit that may suprise you. I am a tortoise.<br /><br />This bit will really suprise you ......<br /><br />The results that you are seeing with this account - and you have to admit they are pretty good arent they!, the results you see are the result of ...........<br /><br />yep, believe it or not .........<br /><br />they are the result of just 9 pips a day<br /><br />Think about that for a moment<br /><br />Just an average of 9 pips a day is going to make me super rich. The hare's of this world will be laughing at this - they are soo fast and soo good that they think 20 -40 pips a day is easily attainable. They are soo clever that they will piss all over my 9 pips a day.<br /><br />Well, ask yourself why they arent millionaires then?<br /><br />so endeth the lesson :)<br /><br />Onto this months results and action.<br /><br />May was a stupendous month, remember last month when i said that if we hit 40k then stage 2 of the plan comes into action? - well we didn't just hit 40k we hit 50k! - at one point our accounts were up over 65% ON THE MONTH!<br /><br />So technically the reason for this sudden volatility during April and may was that gbp broke out of a range that it had been in for over six months - that was bound to produce fireworks - good news for us but i'm sure a lot of people got burned.<br /><br />I guess that you are wondering what this stage 2 is all about. At all times we know that 25% of the account is safe money. when we hit 40k we knew that 10k of the account (our initial stake) was safe and i dont like safe money sitting there doing nothing.<br /><br />so, 10k was taken out of the account and placed into a new account - the 'income account'.<br /><br />We have been running the income account since january this year and the idea is that whilst grail is going to build and build to a big pot, in the meantime we need an income to live off. so was born the income account.<br /><br />The income account trades grail in exactly the same way as the main account with the exception that it is played without compounding at a constant leverage.<br /><br />The basic idea is that for each £5 per pip you trade makes you £1000 per month. We play the income account at high leverage. we started off with 10k of our own money and at £20 a pip - so a 4k take every month.<br /><br />Our testing showed that once a year at this level we would have to put money in as the drawdowns would bust the account but we took the risk that we would get good money out before this happened - we were right and to date we have taken out 20k from a 10k account.<br /><br />Anyway, when the 10k from the grail account became free we decided to add it to our income account and reduce the leverage to a safe level where the account will not bust.<br /><br />so you will see from the account screenshots below that there has been 10k taken out to make yet more money. so dont forget that in the future when you see the account. There is now 20k in the income account which is played at 15:1 (£30 a pip) and gives us £6k per month on average.<br /><br />The figures from the income account will be tagged onto the end of the grail account on a quarterley basis but they do not form part of the million pound target.<br /><br />So, how was the month emotionally? to be honest from sweet inspiration to desperate despair.<br /><br />this month the staking plan meant that our stake increased substantially and to be honest we didnt have time to get used to it. it took us 6 months to increase our stakes threefold and then suddenly within 3 weeks it had increased a further twofold.<br /><br />during the first six months the growth was slow and steady - each increase in the stake was easily assimulated and by the next increase we were well used to the previous one.<br /><br />This month our stakes increased in large jumps and our minds did not have time to get used to the jump - what previously felt like a safe stake suddenly seemed very high and of course like all traders we started to sweat the action and have 'scared money'<br /><br />particularly when you add in the stake from the income account - at one point we were the equivalent of 16 full dollar lots in the market and at the beginning of the month this was just 9 - the jump was rather fast eh?<br /><br />when we did eventually get into a drawdown which was bound to happen, after 4 days i was really starting to sweat and as day five started into negative territory i was looking for the gas oven to stick my head in. - instead i just took a look at the account and noted that even if it had failed that day (which thankfully it didnt) the account would still have been 20% up on the month. that settled the fears and the day actually finished up, as did the next. phew!<br /><br />You may remember last month we were talking about Capital Spreads, well our curiosity got the better ois us and we thought we should do some due dilligence on the company that we were going to take 1 million from.<br /><br />We paid for a Dunn & Bradstreet report on the company London Capital Group Ltd.<br /><br />The report said that the company was very safe and had little chance of failing - however on reading the P&L for the company we took a decision that it just is not big enough for us to trust our hard earned to as next year our projections show that we will take more from them than they have earned in the last 3 years.<br /><br />This, on top of conversations i've had with the MD has caused us to look elsewhere for a place to put our money.<br /><br />This is a shame really - Cap spreads platform lends itself easily to our system, they are mostly fair with entries and as a whole I like doing business with them, but other things also came into our thought like this ...<br /><br />During one conversation we had with them it became apparent that once we reach £300 per pip it could cause them problems with execution - now bear in mind that there are three of us playing this system with them and with 2 accounts each and you start to see what i mean. - combined at the end of the month we were at £267 per pip and by this time next year we will each be at around £400 per pip.<br /><br />Capital spreads is a great company but i don't think they are big enough to handle 3 players at that sort of level.<br /><br />One thing that does bug me is that before we even went on cap spreads you may remember at the start of this blog that i spoke to them about the levels we would be playing and was told we were fine to go ahead. obviously the guy we spoke to thought that we were yet another bunch of suckers who were going to lose.<br /><br />I dont blame him for thinking that because most are, but it does bug me that i was open and straight with the guy about how much we would be staking and everything was rosy unti we actually start to reach that level.<br /><br />Anyway, here's what we have decided to do.<br /><br />Having done some more due dilligence, in april I decided to fund my A.Nother broker account and see how the platform handles our system. Its a bit more work but handled it ok.<br /><br />It handled April and May ok so at the end of april we emptied our income account on cap spreads funded A.Nother broker to see how it handles £30 a pip.<br /><br />So far so good but we are going to play it for a good month first before we think of transferring over the main account.<br /><br />Its important to say that we are not ditching cap spreads totally. the main account is still over there but what we will do is switch the main account over to income and the income account at A.Nother into the main account - so dont be suprised if there is some messing around with the screenshots in the coming months.<br /><br />We will keep the income account at cap spreads basically until they tell us to sod off, which I dont think they will on that level.<br /><br /><br />anyway, time for the figures then, have fun, back next month.<br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Opening balance:£30,397</li></ul> <ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Closing Balance: £34,491<br /><br /></li><li>Holding Account £10,000<br /><br /></li><li>Real Closing Balance £44,491<br /><br /><br /></li><li>P/L: £14,094<br /><br /></li><li>% Gain on account: 46.4%<br /><br /></li><li>Lowest account value: £ 30397<br /><br /></li><li>Highest account value: £50,242<br /><br /></li><li>Maximum Drawdown: £13,568 = 27%% peak to valley</li></ul><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/grailmay.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/320/grailmay.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/1.0.jpg"><br /></a>Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-1146243842977849712006-04-28T16:29:00.000+00:002006-07-10T12:13:32.466+00:00Month 7 April 2006Hiya all,<br /><br />Month seven then and 25% of the way to our goal.<br /><br />Might seem a bit strange to you that we are still aiming for the million and only 17 months to go - hell, i would be dubious too but think of it this way - our moneymanagement means that we literally double our stake every 4 months on average.<br /><br />That means that 10k becomes 20 in 4 months which we managed in 5 months (bit behind)<br /><br />Step 2 ios 20k to 40k, then 40 to 80 etc etc - see what i mean.<br /><br /><br />At the moment progress is painfully slow - year two is the big mover when we are 100k+ in the account.<br /><br />So, anyway, Month 7 has been a strange one - very early in the month we were 30% up on the month which then slipped back down to zero gain and in two days weve rushed up again as you will see below with the monthly report.<br /><br />Some might say "why not quit for the month once youve made your target" - good question but our backtests show that some months will do as much as 52% and as there is no way to predict what will be a good month or a bad month then we just play on.<br /><br />It may also interest you to know that I have almost now become a full time Grail trader. Ive almost given up scalping and daytrading for good. I have a second account which trades grail and every time the account reaches a specific limit I take money out to live on. It makes me around £4000 a month which is enough to pay the bills etc whilst the main account grows untouched.<br /><br />Why am I going this way? well believe me after four years+ of day trading you grow very tired of it. Grail is a simple mechanical system with no thought processes going into the trades whatsoever. some days it wins and some it loses but overall it makes money.<br /><br />Day trading to me is like chinese water torture. No matter how hard you study and work you can never be like 95% right, best you can manage in my opinion is around 80% and that's when you are on top of your game - and to me it isnt worth the extra work and heartache to carry on when i have a system that needs no mental anguish at all. - why bother chasing chickens when you have a goose which lays golden eggs?<br /><br />Next month it may be time to reveal the 'extra' strategy which will come into play when the account reaches 40k. Thats if we get there by then :)<br /><br />Anyway, time for the figures then.<br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Opening balance:£22510</li></ul> <ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Closing Balance: £30,397<br /><br /></li><li>P/L: £7,887<br /><br /></li><li>% Gain on account: 35.13%<br /><br /></li><li>Lowest account value: £ 22,403<br /><br /></li><li>Highest account value: £30,397<br /><br /></li><li>Maximum Drawdown: £7184 = 24.2%% peak to valley</li></ul><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/grailapril.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/320/grailapril.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/ScreenHunter_13.1.jpg"><br /></a>Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-1143823939750457782006-03-31T16:17:00.000+00:002006-07-10T12:12:38.726+00:00Month Six - March 2006Ok, month six then<br /><!-- U6a1gp7vL3F7M5B --><br /><br /><br />although we have made gains this month they are again below par and we have not reached the 6 month target of £32k, in fact we are 10k down.<br /><br />The month has been very uneventful with trades just wiggling around - no biggies but also no big losses. - just the way the market has been.<br /><br />Still, we are at a good percentage of return for the 6 months but im really hoping to get a better next six months.<br /><br />monthly report and 6 month report below<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Monthly Report:</span><br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Opening balance:£20108</li></ul> <ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Closing Balance: £22,510<br /><br /></li><li>P/L: £2402<br /><br /></li><li>% Gain on account: 11.95%<br /><br /></li><li>Lowest account value: £ 16,531<br /><br /></li><li>Highest account value: £22,648<br /><br /></li><li>Maximum Drawdown: £3,577 = 17.7% peak to valley</li></ul><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">6 Months Report</span><br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Opening balance:£10,000</li></ul> <ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Closing Balance: £22,510<br /><br /></li><li>P/L: £12,510<br /><br /></li><li>% Gain on account: 124.10%<br /><br /></li><li>Lowest account value: £ 8640<br /><br /></li><li>Highest account value: £22,648<br /><br /></li><li>Maximum Drawdown: £6,458 = 34.5%% peak to valley</li></ul><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/grailmarch.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/320/grailmarch.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/ScreenHunter_6.0.jpg"><br /></a>Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-1141149365765502862006-02-28T17:22:00.000+00:002006-07-10T12:11:47.716+00:00Month 5 - February 2005So, here we are.<br /><br />Into month five and sort of back on schedule (well almost!)<br /><br />This month had a lot of catching up to do after last months loss, so its probably going to put us behind a month, here's hoping that we manage to catch up with it<br /><br />Over the past week or so ive done some analysis on 2005 and as a whole it preformed a little under par. £10,000 invested on 1st january would have grown to £74000 which is 740% give or take a bit. This may sound a lot but at high leverage its not the performance we expected. To reach our million we need to produce an average of 22% per month growth. This equates to around 1000% per annum that we need.<br /><br />well, if it takes a little longer to get the mil than we thought then what the heck, but at this moment in time the target still stands.<br /><br />Ok, February then.<br /><br />This month we did not have a single maximum stop out. I guess thats making up for last month when we had a boatload of them.<br /><br />Performance has been very good although it has not felt that way with so much ground to gain on January - Effectively we needed a large percentage win this month to get back on track and it did feel that we were merely treading water for the month.<br /><br />We have had a good gain, but a dropped month takes some getting over. hopefully this will even in during the next few months.<br /><br />The good news is that the account has now doubled in size - eat that jupiter fund with your piddling 30% pa<br /><br />anyway, heres the results for the month, next month comes the quarterley report and the six month report on top of the usual monthly one.<br /><br />Have a great March :)<br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Opening balance:£13,940</li></ul> <ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Closing Balance: £20,108<br /><br /></li><li>P/L: £6168<br /><br /></li><li>% Gain on account: 44.2%<br /><br /></li><li>Lowest account value: £ 13,420<br /><br /></li><li>Highest account value: £20,108<br /><br /></li><li>Maximum Drawdown: £1,608 = 9.1% peak to valley</li></ul><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/grailfeb.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/320/grailfeb.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/month5-3.jpg"><br /></a>Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-1138645946445371212006-01-30T17:44:00.000+00:002006-07-10T12:07:51.886+00:00Month 4 - January 2006Hi all, thanks for dropping by on the million pound experiment.<br /><br />If you dont know what this is all about then please read the very first post from this blog - should be either at the bottom of this page or from the links at the side.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">January 2006.</span><br /><br />Well, January has been heartbreaking to say the least - A good start to the month put us onto a new high of the equity curve to over £18k and since then we have been in drawdown.<br /><br />The drawdown is worse the last one we had in November and again this is the part that is heartbreaking.<br /><br />Let me tell you the reason for grail. Grail is 100% mechanical that requires no user input throughout the trading day.<br /><br />To me this is trading nirvana. After more that four years as a trader you get to a point where it bores the pants off you hour after hour and you start to look for something that can take away this tedious existence in front of 5 screens all day. To me that is what grail is.<br /><br />Grail is not, (nor was it designed to be) a 100% winning trading strategy. To me the holy grail of trading is a system you dont have to think about or have decisions to make as to when to close or enter etc.<br /><br />The trouble is, as many of you will know, that the first ten minutes of any trade is the hardest to keep your cool, that is where we are at in grail. the first six months is like the first ten minutes of a daytrade.<br /><br />as a trader you will know that once in the money with a good stop in place covering some profits its a breeze to hold a position. well in the case of grail - the first 100% is the hardest and once the initial capital of 10k has doubled to 20k in safe position (ie 28k as 28K minus max expected drawdown of 40% = 20k) we cannot feel safe.<br /><br />This month we saw £18k drawdown to almost12k - a drop of £6000 doesnt feel right unless you are playing with a six figure account, which we aren't. guess ill just have to get used to that.<br /><br />It is also our first losing month on the system for a year, last February being the last one.<br /><br />We are of course going to continue, if the last 4 months has told us anything it is that grail has this amazing ability to bounce back from the doldrums and suprise us in just a few days.<br /><br />Im hoping that next month's report will be much better that the one which follows.<br /><br />Till then, happy trading.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);"> Monthly Report - January 2006.</span><br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Opening balance:£17,088</li></ul> <ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Closing Balance: £ 13,940<br /><br /></li><li>P/L: -£3,148<br /><br /></li><li>% Gain on account: -18.42%<br /><br /></li><li>Lowest account value: £ 12,239<br /><br /></li><li>Highest account value: £18,697<br /><br /></li><li>Maximum Drawdown: £6,458 = 34.5%% peak to valley</li></ul><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/grailjan.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/320/grailjan.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/ScreenHunter_24.jpg"><br /></a>Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-1135947554816477192005-12-30T12:37:00.000+00:002006-07-10T12:10:51.656+00:00Month 3 First Quarter Dec 2005Ok, heres the first milestone then. December was our first milestone on the way to our Million.<br /><br />The yardstick for December is £17,000. We reached that the first time on the 28th December and then had a down day and closed the year on a plus -final balance is shown on the report below and is to target so time for a good celebration this new years weekend.<br /><br />Youll notice there are two reports this month - the monthly as usual and the quarterley report. The gain on the account has been just as expected and we are on target.<br /><br />emotions this month started to play in - on one day of the month we thought we knew better than the system and could outperform it - we closed the position early at the point where it invariably went in the winning direction.<br /><br />we then spent two hours trying to get back in at our original entry - we got it in the end and as it happened it was a losing day but thats not whats important - we should never have questioned the system and just played it as is.<br /><br />Needless to say since that day we have stuck to it religously and will continue to do so.<br /><br />The problem I think is boredom - when you find something that works well you try and try to make it better - big mistake in the case of moving entries.<br /><br />On saying that we have spent some time in looking at the money management aspect of the system and as of January 2006 we will be implementing something which seems to give an extra 10-20% per annum on the take. This has been properley backtested and makes a marginal difference to drawdown but a substantial difference to end capital so we have deemed it worth the extra risk.<br /><br />Next Target is on March 31st which is £32,000 - interim reports will of course follow each month.<br /><br />all thats left is to wish you all a very healthy, happy and prosperous new year!<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Quarterley Report</span><br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Opening balance:£10,000</li></ul> <ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Closing Balance: £ 17,088<br /><br /></li><li>P/L: £7,088<br /><br /></li><li>% Gain on account: 70.8%<br /><br /></li><li>Lowest account value: £ 9,882<br /><br /></li><li>Highest account value: £17,901<br /><br /></li><li>Maximum Drawdown: £4,620 = 31.8%</li></ul><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);"> Monthly Report - December 2005</span><br /><br /><ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Opening balance:£13,767</li></ul> <ul style="font-weight: bold;"><li>Closing Balance: £ 17,088<br /><br /></li><li>P/L: £3,321<br /><br /></li><li>% Gain on account: 24.12%<br /><br /></li><li>Lowest account value: £ 12,702<br /><br /></li><li>Highest account value: £17,901<br /><br /></li><li>Maximum Drawdown: £3,332 = 19.6% peak to valley</li></ul><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/graildecember05.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/320/graildecember05.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/ScreenHunter_16.jpg"><br /></a>Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-1133359202579799022005-11-30T13:43:00.000+00:002006-07-10T12:09:51.323+00:00Month 2 - 1st - 30th NovemberWell, what can I say?<br /><br />November turned out to be probarbly the most difficult month that I've ever done this strategy (yes, been doing it for a while before this experiment)<br /><br />November suffered a terrible drawdown which almost made the biggest drawdown on record of the system for the last three years. Although we knew the worst case scenario could happen we just didnt think it would happen at this stage of the game - 6 months down the line would be fine but not in the first 2 months please!!<br /><br />The month started well as on the 4th day we were at new highs of account equity thanks to a slight change to the system. Let me explain.<br /><br />Although Grail is a long term system that has been worked out over a long period of time - every six months we re-evaluate the settings in use to make sure it's still at it's optimum for the prevailing market conditions. 2005 has been a very volatile year for cable and as such a change in one of our parameters was deemed to be necessary. After running the backtests we were convinced enough to make the change and this was implemented on the 1st of the month.<br /><br />You may be asking is that is what caused the drawdown and the answer is no, on running the previous scenario the drawdown would have been larger although not to a large degree.<br /><br />At the point of the lowest drawdown I must admit that we got very nervous - especially as it was eating into original capital. However true to form on the very next day the method gave what we expected it to do and came in ok.<br /><br />The month is not to target though. To make the million we must hit an average of 22% per month. This should average out though as we go through the next 18 months. In our tests we had months which increased equity as much as 60% and the next 18 months should give some months much higher than others.<br /><br />Onto the figures then - check back New Years Eve to see if we reached our December target of 17k equity<br /><br /><ul><li>Opening balance:£12,486</li></ul> <ul><li>Closing Balance: £ 13,767<br /><br /></li><li>P/L: £1281<br /><br /></li><li>% Gain on account: 10.2%<br /><br /></li><li>Lowest account value: £ 9,882<br /><br /></li><li>Highest account value: £14,502<br /><br /></li><li>Maximum Drawdown: £4,620 = 31.8%</li></ul><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/grailnov05.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/320/grailnov05.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/ScreenHunter_12.0.jpg"><br /></a>Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-1130770017941300922005-10-31T14:19:00.000+00:002006-07-10T12:08:53.596+00:00Month One - 1st - 31st October 2005Ok, month one over then and performance is within expected parameters.<br /><br />Full screenshots of the live account are below - any information that could identify any system parameters have been removed. and there are 3 pictures as it doesnt all fit onto one screen.<br /><br />Before the summary ill add some text. Even though we had full confidence in the system, the first half of the month was a little hairy to say the least - slight doubts begin to surface when your first few days produce nothing by losers. Its also very easy that when a position is looking to continue in a winning trade to leave it open overnight.<br /><br />However we stuck to our rules which by the way are totally without discretion and we came out on top.<br /><br />Ive had one problem with the broker this month who slipped me by one pip whilst they didnt slip my partner - this was rectified on the account as you will see from the statement. Ive also had some refferal money paid into the account which is 2X£50 payments for recommending a friend which has to be taken into the final balance - bloody ell i thought, could make a killing just by doing that all day!!<br /><br />good thing is that the friend also gets £50 so all is fair :)<br /><br />Just the results left then - somne may look at these and scoff, fine, scoff away - but remember from little acorns come big oak trees :)<br /><br />see ya all at the end of November.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Results of the first month, bear in mind our frst target is 17k by end of december.</span><br /><br /><ul><li>Opening balance:£10,000</li></ul> <ul><li>Closing Balance: £ 12,486<br /><br /></li><li>P/L: £2,486<br /><br /></li><li>% Gain on account: 24.8%<br /><br /></li><li>Lowest account value: £ 8,630<br /><br /></li><li>Highest account value: £13,326<br /><br /></li><li>Maximum Drawdown: £1,370 = 13.7%</li></ul><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/grailoct05.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/320/grailoct05.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2009/383/1600/ScreenHunter_1.jpg"><br /></a>Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-1128096760669983512005-09-30T16:12:00.000+00:002005-09-30T16:40:51.833+00:00Launch TimeOk, Monday the 3rd of October marks the first day of The Million Pound Grail Experiment.<br /><br />Below is a screenshot from my capital spreads account - I have five broker accounts in total but from Monday this particular account will be used for this experiment alone.<br /><br />As you can see the screenshot does mask some information. Obviously the account number but also any information that could compromise the systems integrity. There are only a handful of people that know of this system and its going to stay that way.<br /><br />So, where I hit the stop level you will find blanks before and after, where i hit a take profit level you will also see blanks and as i publish the account once a month you will only see information that does not threaten the integrity of the system.<br /><br />You can say what you want but the basic advice is this - if you dont like it or you are reading this to try and work out the system then dont bother looking. this is for my use in charting the progress and nothing more.<br /><br />You may think that im going to sell this system - that is not going to happen so dont hold your breath - anyway, there are many more systems that make many more pips that this for the active trader, namely Hilda. As i explained in the first post this is an investment strategy rather than a trading system.<br /><br />So, to business. You will see below that i had to add a couple of hundred quid to the account to bring it up to the 10k starting total - at least from that you can tell it's not a demo account.<br /><br />Like any trade you ever take - the hardest part of the trade is right at the beginning and im sure that month one will be like that. The account is to be played with a leverage of 10:1 with a twist - the twist is the bit that might be a little scary to begin with so it will be interesting to see how it goes. I have no problems in playing the system - ive traded it for the last four months live and im 100% confident in it - the new compounding though has not been tried before except backtesting it. <br /><br />The backtest looked good but then it was only 6 months of a test rather than the usual 3 years i like to do. All backtests that i do are checked by hand. Also interesting to note that the length of this 2 year experiment is almost as long as the backtest performed on the system itself!<br /><br />The updates will not be that regular but i guess i might have some comments to make as we go through the first month. If you dont want to read them then just check out the last day of the month when the account status will be revealed.<br /><br />With that i hope you wish me well as we enter what is traditionally the best trending months of the year. By now most of the muppets have gone broke and are back to demo and the real traders start to build their winter nest egg.<br /><br />Good luck for October 2005, and rool on October 07 and my million quid :)<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><a href="http://photos1.blogger.com/img/286/6094/640/opening%20account%20sept%2005.jpg"><img style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); margin: 2px;" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/img/286/6094/320/opening%20account%20sept%2005.jpg" border="0" /></a>Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-1127901850029484162005-09-28T09:32:00.000+00:002005-09-28T10:04:10.896+00:00Broker ConversationOk, in the comments on the last posting someone asked for more info on my conversation with my broker.<br /><br />I called my broker and asked to speak to the managing director who i got through to immediately.<br /><br />before i tell you how the conversations went let me address the concerns i had:<br /><br />1) the broker specified a maximum of £100 per pip<br /><br />2) eventually there would be a lot of money in the account - how secure were they?<br /><br />3) would their 'dealer assist' trade placing be able to get the fills quick enough on large trades<br /><br />4) could in effect two or more of us playing the same system put the stability of the actual company in jeapoardy?<br /><br />On looking at these questions one thing struck me - I need to have a good win-win relationship with my broker. Many people in the forex world seem to feel an advesarial relationship with their broker - 'the broker ripped me off' is often said.<br /><br />We have to realise that a broker is in this for the money just as we are - they want to make money and we want to make money - there is no reason at all that we cant both achieve the same thing with a good level of co-operation.<br /><br />so with the aim of forming a relationship i picked up the phone and got the MD.<br /><br />Im a bit of a blunt guy and after the initial introductions i asked my first question which was "how many million pound accounts do you hold" he answered and said he couldnt give specifics but when i said im not after their names - just how many, he told me there was several.<br /><br />I asked how big his biggest account holder was and he told me that he had a couple of punters with accounts in excess of 7 mil.<br /><br />I then addressed the £100 a pip limit. It turns out the £100 a pip limit is a 'per trade' limit and you can open as many trades as you wish.<br /><br />I asked what the reaction would be at being suddenly presented with a trade of £700 a pip and he said it would certainly raise some eyebrows and may be difficult to fill without notice. however he also told me of one client who regularly trades at upwards of £1000 a pip without issue.<br /><br />We then spoke at length about the security of the company and safeguards that were in place. He told me that by law in the uk they have to place all client funds and winning positions into a fund which is untouchable by them - he told me that each day the company had to report on the size of this fund, the customer holding and current winning positions to the FSA (financial services authority) and that they were unable by law to use any part of that account to cover losses.<br /><br />I have since verified this with the FSA.<br /><br />After a long conversation of around 30-45 mins the general gist is that once up to £200 a pip i should be contacting for a personal trader and telephone my orders in giving some warning to them to help them out.<br /><br />They make money by getting a better fill at market than they offer we punters and of course from the spread - they will generally get 1 or 2 pips better filled than we do .<br /><br />personally i dont have a problem with this and he even said that at decent levels of trade we will be able to negotiate for a better rate of say a 2 pip spread thanks to the volume we will be trading.<br /><br />I mentioned that the system i trade could well result in occasional winning days of £300,000 and asked if this would cause a problem to the liquidity of the business if there were a few of us doing it. He told me that if we were to take 300k in a day that they would be looking to make 310k on the trade and that the fund holding of the business could easily swallow that kind of take over a sustained period.<br /><br />it works like this - you cant be advesarial with your broker if you are playing large sums - this has to be a win win situation for both parties concerned as if it isnt this is when they start to shaft you.<br /><br />Subsequent investigations with the FSA, Dunn & Bradstreet and other sources have settled my mind that there will not be a problem in excecuting our strategy of 10k to 1mill.Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16936400.post-1127319801497701342005-09-21T16:23:00.000+00:002005-09-21T16:36:04.866+00:00Welcome to Grailtrading!<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Right, hello and welcome to grail trading.</span></span><br /><br />if you wish to comment on any part of our postings on here then feel free.<br /><br /><b style="font-style: italic;">what's this all about?</b><br /><br />The Grail is a Forex investment strategy which we have found has almost no chance whatever of losing based on a month by month basis. Note here that I said 'almost' as there has been one losing month in the last 3 years.<br /><br />Its important to note here that the quest for a holy grail trading system has been every traders pursuit since man began to trade the markets. The famous holy grail would be a 100% winning system with that analogy and as this does have losers then we cant add the tag 'holy' to it :)<br /><br />We don't class this as a trading system - we class it as an investment strategy and mentally there is a difference. An investment is not something that you watch every 5 minutes on a chart and an investment is not something that you expect large returns from immediately , day by day or week by week as you would in a trading system.<br /><br />This kind of strategy is not played by many in the Forex game as to be honest its boring and you have to have discipline of steel and determination to see it through to a conclusion. It's not 'get rich quick' its more 'get rich slow'<br /><br />Grail returns can only be measured on a monthly and preferably 6 monthly basis.<br /><br /><b style="font-style: italic;">Why this site?</b><br /><br />Our aim with this blog is to open a real money account on 1st October 2005 with £10,000 of capital and turn it into £1,000,000 within 2 years using a method of compounding the equity throughout that time.<br /><br />This site will be our yardstick to measure the effectiveness of the investment and to compare it with the best hedge funds and investment vehicles available on the market today.<br /><br />Following the publishing of our initial targets below we will publish on here screenshots of the live account. Obviously account numbers and actual trade entry levels will be blanked out but you will be able to see the account rise and fall during any given month by watching the equity which will be shown in is entirety.<br /><br />We feel that we may hit hurdles along the way - for example the burning desire to take out some profit before the account comes to it's fruition or maybe the temptation to add to the account if it falls short of it's monthly target. We don't want that to happen but it will be interesting to see how we handle that.<br /><br />There are also other problems we may come across. For example, as we live in the <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">UK</st1:place></st1:country-region> we will be using spread betting companies to trade with and the one we have identified (capital spreads) currently have a limit of £100 per pip allowed to be traded. This could be a serious problem that hampers our progress in our compounding and we may find we have to open more accounts or even switch altogether to a 'peoper' Forex broker to continue (FYI £100 per pip is roughly equivalent to 18 standard lots with a single lot being $100k)<br /><br />it will be very interesting to see the responses we get from our spread betting company and we will log our experiences here as we go through.<br /><br /><b style="font-style: italic;">How do you know this will work?</b><br /><br />The system has actually been traded for around 18 months with a different configuration to great success. Our new parameters have been only forward tested for 3 months but does concur with our 3 year backtest which was hand checked for accuracy and found to be within 3-4% of actual results.<br /><br />The backtest revealed that £10,000 invested in May 2003 would today be worth more than £2 million. The drawdowns were acceptable and so we are confident in its pedigree.<br /><br />However it is worth noting that past performance can never be relied on for future actions and this is why we are risking an initial pot of £10,000 and not loading it to the hilt with everything we have.<br /><br /><b style="font-style: italic;">Who is 'we'</b><br /><br />There are two of us doing this both at the same time and with the same entries. The other party will remain anon.<br /><br /><b style="font-style: italic;">Will you be selling this system?</b><br /><br />No, this system is such that every single entry is the same for every trader.<br /><br />We feel that if this was traded on the same broker by even just a handful of people that the broker would start to recognise the pattern and do something to stop it being traded. you may think that this is crazy and that theywouldn't care - but when the account is at say £700,000 its quite possible that the system could take as much as £154,000 in a single day. How would your broker feel if he had say 20 traders doing that on a semi regular basis and all on the same day?<br /><br />now then - <b>update</b>I whilst i was thinking of this i just thought lets try and get this sorted so i rang the MD of the brokerage and had a good long chat. lets just say that it wont be a problem, ill cover this in more detail when we get to this point.<br /><br />Anyhow, no, it wont be for sale this isnt a marketing blog.<br /><br /><b style="font-style: italic;">Targets:</b><br /><br />Obviously we cant measure the success if we dont have a yardstick. Below is our target map of milestones to reach. The targets are aggressive and are stretch targets. however if they arent met we will not deviate from the system.<br /><br />Dec 31st 2005: £17,000<br />March 31st 2006: £32,000<br />June 31st 2006: £58,000<br />Sept 31st 2006: £104,000<br />Dec 31st 2006: £188,000<br />March 31st 2007: £340,000<br />June 31st 2007: £612,000<br />Sept 31st 2007: £1,000,000<br /><br /><b><span style="font-style: italic;">That's it!</span><br /><br /></b>Well, thats the introduction over with. As from 1st October 2005 I will publish on the first of the month the account status and the movement in the month.<br /><br />Wish us well :)</p>Soultraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17015415590415550468noreply@blogger.com5