Well, we made it.
Grail is one year old this weekend as is the blog.
This weeks report therefore is a special one as it will show the entire annual result.
Before you go below and read that report though I want to cover some of the highs and the lows of the year I have just lived through.
Here's an interesting question though - how many of you reading this were trading forex last year and are still trading forex now? - chances are it's not many and i'd love you to make some comments this month - Happy birthday messages are welcome too :)
I guess it's pretty amazing that the project lasted a full 12 months. But i do have to tell you that although the system is just about the same as it was 12 months ago, it has undergone some changes throughout that time.
Highs and lows of the year:
1) The 'New Car' scenario (High)
During the year the Grail team needed a way to measure how successful we were being on a daily basis. We opted for the "how much of a car have we won today" - it started off with a full set of tyres on a day that we cleared say £400.
The first high was when we won the equiv of a Kia Picanto in one day - around £4500.
The real high on this came when in a single day we made more than our initial £10,000 stake.
The last time I broke the record it was £17,460 - the equivalent of a reasonable BMW
2) The stop change day (High)
One day after some significant testing and research we decided to change our initial stop limit. we actually made our initial stop larger. two days later as we watched our trade go against us - it went past our old stop .... went within 2 pips of our new stop ... turned around and ended the day on a 100+ pip winner.
3. the 0.1 pip stopout (Low)
One day the market quotes on the different brokers was a fair way out of kilter. One of our team was stopped out in one direction by 0.1 of a pip for a hefty loss whilst everyone else closed eod for a winner.
as for 1 pip stopouts there have been lots and always will be, but we think that 0.1 is talking the piss.
Another one pip stopout was when one of our team was testing on a real account the system without a stop at all - we were all stopped out for 1 pip whilst the tester went on to close at +240 pips. GRRRR still sore about that one!
4. Lying Bastard Brokers.
I cannot reveal this as yet as I and others still have accounts with them - but watch out next year for the full story.
5. Retiring from 'active daytrading'
when i gave up chasing the price in May / June time it was a high.
Neither you, I or anyone can predict which way the market will go in the next 10 seconds never mind the next 10 minutes - so if you are still doing that then my advice is give it up and find another way.
6. Trading OPM
I never ever wanted to trade Other Peoples money - I had enough on trading my own. I was asked time and time again to trade OPM and i turned it down time and time again.
My long time trading buddy from NYC has badgered me for years to trade OPM and finally i said yes.
Because i said yes and had to work out a way so i could do it and still have a life, nip out to the shops etc I discovered the marvelous world of automated trading. - for those who are searching for an automated strategy i can tell you that it is possible - very very few have managed to make money trading a robot and i'm happy to be one of them.
Most people who want a trading robot look the wrong way around - they look at robot traders that make money - change your focus - find a system that makes money and then make a robot out of it.
A special thanks goes out to Trevor Beatty here for teaching this old dog some new tricks and putting up with my tireless whinging about why a robot trader doesn't do what it's supposed to do. Thanks for the last 12 months Trevor.
7. Laughing My Tits Off (High)
The final high for me this year comes every time i listen to so called tradin guru's who say that if you can make 20-30% a year that you are doing well - well the results below for a whole year prove that this perception is TOTAL BOLLOCKS.
Im sorry Paris, Zen, and all those others who say that you cant do it - but you can and it matters not how much money you do it with - millions in the market are just a drop.
Anyway, onto the results and analasys then.
To simplify things with the holding account I now just list the system gains and tell you whats in the holding account - the statements will show X number of pounds less where X is the amount of cash in the holding account.
This month was a bit of a shitter again - didnt lose money but didn't make a new account high the effects of this will hbe shown below the account pics in the annual review.
Don't you think that September was a little weird? - not like any september i've seen for a long time. I wonder if the market is going through yet another change. August is always crap because of holidays etc but september is usually a serious trading month. Just makes you think is all.
8. Working with the best forex team in the world! (Very High)
Mike Keres - UK, the best analytical guy i've ever met and my number one partner in grail development. Thanks for the last few years Mike, the superyacht gets closer every day.
Angie - France without whom we may never have stumbled across grail's potential and without whom we wouldnt have any sex appeal in the group. Thanks Angie XX
Trev - UK our Programming guru - the only bloke ive ever heard that managed to get metatrader to trade on oanda, cmc or any platform you can name - genius even though he's a southern git.
Keith - New York - Our USA branch of the grail lunatics - chart guru, fund raiser and out and out party hound! - spends time with the famous people of NYC at night and we aspiring multi millionaires during the trading day. I've traded with keith ever since i found forex. Thanks for the last four years Keith
Whispy - UK - A Guy who had never traded before and bought the Hilda system off me. Mike is a system hound, always on the lookout for new ideas for an old problem - how to make the market work for you. Out of anyone Mike has progressed more in the last 12 months and at a greater speed than most i've ever met. Keep it up mike - and i'm not talking about the x-ray camcorder ya perv!
Mike - Australia - No trading team would be complete without an Australian arm and someone with age and control on his side. The consistent steady player of the group and another ideas man Fluty manages to inject some decorum into our mad world. A fully qualified trading teacher too! Thanks Mike.
Results:
Month 12 September 2006
- Cash in holding account: .................£10,000
- Opening balance:.............................£52,077
- Closing Balance: ..............................£ 61,785
- % Gain ................................................18.64%
- £ Gain .............................................£9708
- Lowest account value: ......... ....... ....£ 47,649
- Highest account value: ....................£65,684
- Maximum Drawdown: .....................£6,160 = 9.3% peak to valley
Annual Grail Report 1/10/2005 - 30/9/2006
- Opening Balance.................................£10,000
- Closing Balance...................................£ 61,786
- Lowest account value...........................£ 8,630
- Highest A/C Value................................£77,262
- ROI - High Point...................................672%
- ROI End of year ...................................517%
- Maximum Drawdown...........................£29,613
- Max Drawdown % ................................38.3% Peak To Valley
- Biggest Win Day (1 A/C only) ...................£12,180
- Biggest Loss Day (1 A/C only) ..................£-6314
- Max Consecutive Wins ...........................5
- Max Consecutive Losses ........................5
- Number Wins ........................................147 (Includes 0 days)
- Number Losses .....................................111
- Win / Loss % .........................................57%
- Total Pips .............................................1720
- Average Pips Per Trade ........................7
- Biggest Win (Pips) ...............................180
- Highest Monthly Gain ..........................46.7%
- Average Monthly Gain .........................18%
- Earnings (from Holding Fund) .......................£6,500
So, there you have it.
I included the earning from the holding fund which is really great seeing as it's only been in there 3 months. In reality though that is only half the picture as I added a further 10k to the holding fund which is my income account - pays the bills etc. so from £20k I have so far since January withdrawn £30,000 in wages :) better that being in the rat race that's for sure.
So, the question is, did the year go to plan?
Well, yes and no. In August when we topped 77k we were near enough spot on target. Probably about 1 week behind. However the recent monster drawdown and losing month has put us back somewhat.
I wont really be able to say wether 2006 was better than 2005 till the end of the year. 2005 did 738% from Jan to Dec wheras 2004 did 1650% - 2006 has yet to show it's colours, but if anything I'm expecting it to pick up to round the year off.
I'm now estimating that we will hit the million around the end of December next year - rather a nice Christmas Present don't you think? - this is still a stretch target based on the performance - to do that needs an average of 20% per month and as you can see we have managed 18% this last 12 months.
I believe that if you also add in the holding accounts profits the we will hit the million before this time - each time the main account hits a multiple of 40k I take 10k out of that account and trade it seperately in the holding account. The aim is to get the holding account up to £100 per pip which will result in £20,000 per month on average in income. That will be nice :)
as a result of that the timer on the page has been reset to end at midnight Xmas Eve 2007 and the project is extended until then - of course we now have a chance of hitting the target early if fortune smiles on us.
Plans for the next 12 months go like this
1. New Grail Timetable
Dec 31st 2006: £120,000
March 31st 2007: £209,000
June 31st 2007: £361,000
Sept 31st 2007: £625000
Dec 25th 2007: £1,000000
2. Managed Account balance up to 10 million
3. New fallback system (been working on this for 6 months already!)
4. New system for managed funds based on Multiple intraday trades but still Mechanical
And That's it.
I hope you wish me well and maybe take some inspiration from my first year results. Its been quite an emotional time - scary, elation, highs and lows but myself and my collegues have made it.
Please feel free to leave comments on this thread, and till next time, Take care :)
